crash and burn

ever since my last post i have been having disasterous results. I hate losing money and after losing a record 21 points in one days racing i started tilting seriously in poker and racing.. my bankroll is now under 800 euro.. fucking shite.. my last three sessions of poker i have lost 200 dollars to fucking donkeys but its all my own fault as i knew i was beat and still made stupid calls.. anyways im back down to 20nl until i regain my composure and im putting extra analysis into my racing. i had 8 bets today on a busy day and 1 won so i lost 3 points.

Saturdays action

Here are my selections for saturdays jump racing.

Ascot
12.30 My Petra - should win easy
1.05 Trabolgan, Gangadu & Monkerhostin ( large prices here to dutch)
1.40 No bet for me as cant chose one and looking forward to just watching it.
2.10 Blazing Bailey, Lough Derg, Duc de Regneire ( large prices here to dutch)
2.45 Aigle D'or, Prince Taime if less than 8/1 sp, Numide Belcantista if less than 8/1 sp)

Haydock
12.20 Ocky de Neulliac & Ballysimon for an outside big priced winner
12.50 Secret Tune
1.25 Miss Pross
2.00 Doctor David
2.35 Nevertika, Middleton Dene
3.10 to be decided yet depending on going.

Newcastle
No bet for first two races are they are shite and im too tired to go throughthe rest of the card tonight, hopefully tomorrow

had 4 bets today in two races ,one second place by short head, and the other race just didnt go to plan at all. so down 48 euro.

Bankroll now at 1152. No poker played today as break was needed.

Cheers

Stagnation....

Two steps forward two steps back...

I played 450 hands last night of good poker and won $75, about 52 euros. i then played in two races today, the mares novice hurdle in Exeter, where i backed the second fav Silver spinner who i thougth would walk this event. However it came 3rd at 11/4.

The second race i got beat by the gamble. I actually backed three horses in this race at level stakes but in fact i should only have bet two, South of the bordr and willam bonney. They came 2nd and 4th respectively. I didnt take into account Sunita whch was coming back after a year off the course and the trainer Lavelle had it trained to win.. south of the border looked like he wa crusing it and would have won only for Sunita being the better horse on the day.
so i lost 48 euros today at racing.

I missed an opportunity in the 2.40 in ludlow where the favourite priince of persia went off at odds on even though i had questions marks over its fitness due to close proximity to last weeks win, and also pipes record with handicap chases at ludlow which was 0/8, however i refrained from the race as the going went from soft to good to soft where prince of persia had preformed well. The reason i still should have layed it was the fact i found 4 others in the race who had a great chance of winning, these being
College Ace, Crewell Willow, Downs Folly and Presenting express (another lavelle trained horse coming back after a year..)

the result was Creswell willow 14/1 1st, Downs folly 8/1 2nd, College ace 17/2 4th and Prince of Persia 8/11 3rd... oh well..

So bankroll is 1202 euros... This week has been crap. down 130 euros in fact.. However the show will go on and i still hope to reach 2000 before the new year

A Blank

So of the tips i posted it turned out to be a breakeven day. I however put on another bet in the last handicap chase in Bangor and i picked 3 horses, 2 of which came 2nd and 3rd at biggish prices.. i should have paid more heed to tony mccoy saddling the favourite whose strike rate while on said horse in handicap hurdles was 1-1-2 (thats 1 win, 1 place from two runs ). anyways he won by two lenghts at 3/1..

More to come tomorrow

Newbury 2.00

This looks like an easy one to predict!!!

Jackella to win and lay Great Tsar if price drops below 4/1

I have lost no money today due to laying off my last selection at 8/1 so giving me a free bet at 5/1. however it came second so no harm done.

Edit: just spotted a possibilty in Major euro and i am going to put on a weird bet. I am going to back to win and also lay to place. The reason: the horse has all the conditions to win today but this horse has a weird temperment and if he isnt on his A game doesnt win then he will either be pulled up or well down the pecking order. A safe bet i think. his odds are 13.5/1 and 3/1 to lay

12.20 Newbury

i usually wouldnt back in a race like this with a lot of unknowns but i think i have found value in Walkon. Currently 14/1 on betfair and up against two highly rated media hyped hurdle debutants, Zaynar & Hebridean who have proven class form on the flat and who are now with good stables. However you can never rely a horse first time out over fences so im takin the value bet here as Walkon won its first race in a class two novice hurlde, tainred by Alan King who is in fine form and ha won on agalloping track before in good fashion.

I would like to see a bit more market support for this as King has never had a winner in a non handicap hurdle over 8/1 so we shall see how it goes...However i am hoping that the media has over hyped the first two in the market

what a shit day

I played a lot of poker today and i played very well and made no mistakes so it really pisses me off to say i lost 110 euros today down to 3 bad beats and 1 cooler.. i also had other smaller coolers which im not even counting against shortstackers. anyways so i can vent
I had 2 full houses and got the money all in on the turn to see the board double pairing on both occassions, losing 120 dollar pots each time.. the opponents of course had trips but then of course made bigger full houses..

i then got it all in with KK versus QQ and of couse he drew out on me for 100 dollar pot.

The cooler was my set of 8's versus a set of 10's for 110 dollar pot..

that 225 dollars down so about 180 euros so i suppose i did ok considering...

anyways vent over.. bankroll now at 1092 euros.

lost 12 euros on the horses today.. my banker bet came second but i layed the fav as well in that race and he came third so a free bet.. howevr i backed two horse in the handicap chase in doncaster and they came nowhere, but only 6 euros each on both so not too bad...

I should not have had a bet in the second race as no clear horse stood out for me, whereas for the candy girl race, that horse really did stand out and was pretty unlucky not to catch the winner on the run in..

right time for bet. hopefully ive earned at least 30 dollars rakeback today for my play..

2.45 Doncaster

I cant separate these two so back both
Leading attraction 2/1
Ice Tea 9/1

1.55pm Fairyhouse

Candy Girl to win, currently at 3/1.

Result Result, winner alright!

Huntingdon 12:10 - Result
Toteplacepot E.b.f. Mares' 'nh' Novices' Hurdle (qualifier)


1st Circus Rose 13/2
2nd Tot Of The Knar evens
3rd Wistow 50/1
4th Call Me A Legend 5/2
5th Bahia Blanca (FR) 16/1
6th Midsummer Magic 25/1

As you can see from the result the analysis of the race was nearly spot on. I got on the winner at 10/1 last night. I layed the fav and also backed Midsummer Magic so all in all 100 euro's profit.

I also put in a half hour session on betfair and won 60 euro so bankroll now at 1332 or something like that. I also got word from raketherake.com and they informed me that i did indeed receive the rakeback.. i checked it out and i received it the day i played over 3500 hands and didnt realise it but no worries....Im still pretty happy with the progress of the bankroll at the moment.

12.10 huntington 11 dec

Sorry my third post today but i just had a quick look over the first race in huntington tomorrow and i may have spotted a big priced winner. of course this may turn out to be egg on my face but hear me out

The favouite Tot Of The Knar won 2 days ago easily and is priced at 6/5. he is trained by good trainer and ridden by top jockey and trainer is in decient form. however i have spotted that he runs his best races on left handed tracks and tomorrow is right handed plus to run two days after a hurdle race is still pretty tough going.

Next in the market is Call Me A Legend, again good trainer and jockey but this horse cannot race on an easy track. he needs a stiff test so ruled out

Next is Circus Rose which looks kinda dangerous. its a very progressive horse and is suited to track but this is an extra 3 1/2 furlongs and has never raced this distance. I have noted that her relatives have been very successful at 3 miles and furtehr so maybe this horse does have a chance.. one for the short list currently trading at 11/1. just noted that this trainer has won this race before with this horses relative and they took the saem path with this horse. expect a very big race out of her tomorrow

Bahia Blanca & Midsummer Magic are both nicky hendersons horse and he has also won this race before and that winner had the exact same profile as these two. so these two and circus rose are on my short list. I may discount Bahia Blanca as she tended to hang left on last outing and plus her two places came on better ground also it looks like the second stable jockey is on board .

Therefore that leaves Circus rose & Midsummer magic to dutch at big odds tomorrow and to lay the favourite Tot Of The Knar.

Cardrunners has fucked up Full Tilt

Yes i know that most of us ssnl grinders owe our life to cardrunners but fuck me when they joined up with full tilt they really did make it damn unenjoyable to build a bankroll there.. i know table selction is the key but you are now lucky to find one fish at any of the 25nl tables and a load of 22/17 regualrs and the nits as well.. 6 months ago i could run up 8 buyins on a good day.. now im lucky to make two, and my play has considerably improved since then.

SO i have decided to give up playing no limit holdem on full tilt and instead concentrate on 25plo. Reasons being.
1. I want to learn the game
2. I still want to receive rakeback
3. I still want to earn points so i get reduced price/free membership to cardrunners
4. I actually like their software
5. I want to play on another site when betfair has low traffic.

So I have read that PLO book by some chinese sounding name guy before but now im going to read it again and watch a few videos and this time take notes. I have 32 buyins to play with so watch me tear it up 25plo!!

Finally, I played another A game session on Betfair and won just over 100 euros today. Bankroll now stands at 1152 euro. Sweet.

I might not get in any horse racing tomorrow as i have to run relation into hospital for xray..

missed opportunity today

I got up late today and realised that there was only 1 national hunt race meet on in leicster which is one of my favourite uk tracks. anyways i analysed the handicap chase race where the favourite was 8/13!! here are my notes on the selection

Ping Pong Sivola
1.sam thomas on board -shaky at the moment over fences-
2.never won carrying 11-11
3.has suffered bounce factor before however they race previous was alot tougher than this past one
4.never won at distance

with all these negatives you would have thought i should have layed it.. howevr i looked at all the other horses and there was nothing special about them. the eventual winner was Phar Again where i note 'going issue but has race into a place in exeter(very similar track to leicster).

anyway what i am trying to get at is the fact that i should have layed this horse anyways as he was definitely correct to be favourite but in my eyes possibly a 5/2 favourite, therefore value in my eyes and a profit in the long run..

Last night i played 25nl on fulltilt on 8 tables.. never again.. i tilted for the first time in a while.. i made 2 stupid mistakes and lost 3 buyins in a couple of minutes. i eventually got back 2 but took ages on 6 tables.. it is unbelievable how much tougher full tilt is to any other poker site at comparable stake levels. Im off to play some more.

Also i have sent email to rake the rake about my rakeback from betfair which i have still not received. i did however receive some more of my sign up bonus. Betfair balance is now 1033 euro.

New schedule

Sorry for lack of posting but i have been away from my computer all weekend. looks like the unemployed bum will no longer be unemployed come 12th jan. New job got so between now and then i have come up with a new schedule to cover both horses and poker.

I have noticed that during the morning and early afternoon, betfair only has a few 50nl tables going populated by nitty regulars.. to prove this point i grinded 3000 hands yesterday playing 4 tables and made a total of 9 dollars.. maybe i didnt play so well but i didnt spew any big sums and i couldnt hit a barn door with an elephant either. I suppose i earned some rakeback.

today I analysed 3 races and had 3 successful bets out of 4 to the profit of 60 euro, (6 points profit). I am now betting 10 euro a bet as bank was 820 or so. after that I played for about an hour and a quarter on betfair poker and made 110 dollars but stopped as i felt myself losing concentration. I am now going to grind 8 tables of 25nl on full tilt for 3 reasons. 1. i have the aid of Poker ace hud. 2 . i am in debit on my ozzie credit card account and i want to transfer money from full tilt on to this account as it costs too much to do an international bank transfer.3. i can get free cardrunners membership if i build up 4500 points.

Anyway the new schedule is as follows
1. get up at noonish
2. look at days races and pick out a few selections and watch a bit of ATR racing channel
3. play some full tilt 25nl if i feel the need to play poker
4. have break for dinner
5. Play 50nl on betfair poker from 7pm on and for as long as i feel im playing my A game
6. If its early and i have had another break i will play some more 25nl on full tilt if i dont feel up to playing 50nl.

I also have plans to record a video showing how to analyse a horse race and become profitable from horse racing.

thats about it. laters

bad day

Again i proved my point of not playing when hungover. i was up 90 dollars yesterday but made 137 dollars worth of mistakes. i then played another session and lost all that again to breakeven for the day. sickening.

I got another 30 euros worth of bonuses today and im due the 120 dollars of rakeback on the 6th of dec.

I have stopped horseracing betting until the racing post sorts itself out. it is playing up really bad at the moment.. I also need to buy myself a subscription to ukhr racing as it has all the form there and now is easier to read then the racing post

Weekend Off

Im suffering from gambling withdrawal. i took the weekend off or an extended weekend off to celebrate my friends wedding so waiting to get over the hangover before i start playing again. i have a bad record of playing with a hangover.

Also i have noticed that racing post have updated their website and it looks like i shall have to pay now for their stats. pretty annoyed with that so i m looking around for other sources. the new rp site seems to have some glitches and i actually cant stand the look of it now...

also i put a bet on last friday as i got a tip from the fathers friend. i looked at the tip and thought yes this may well do well but it came nowhere. so i lost 20 euro on that..

ok time to grind some poker..

50 NL

Today i reached my miles stone of 600 euro and moved up to 50 nl. It plays basically the same as 20 nl and plenty of fish to dominate. Today i played 1500 hands and made $99, so 76 euros. Bankroll now at 678, and im due a bonus payment which betfair again forgot to send today of about 25 euro.

weekend off

so i took sat night and all day sunday off and went on a big drinking session instead. i then played 800 hands last night and played pretty well considering i was getting cold sweats from the hangover but i ended up down 45 dollars. i was on the receiving end of two bad beats for full stacks so overall i didnt do too bad. i also couldnt flop top pair to save myself. anyways i just concluded a 2 hour session and made it back plus a little more. i made two god damn bad mistakes which cost me 33 dollars though.

First one was calling reraise on the river when i had an over pair (QQ) against villians turned set.
Second one was even worse committing 23 dollars on the flop in a multiway pot with just top pair top kicker. villian had top two pair of course. I should have even been playing as i had set a time limit to stop and i knew i was nt playing as well as i should and was a momentary lapse of concentration.

No horses today as i was inside in dublin city all morning till 2ish and didnt have time to look at it in detail.

Ascot

I looked at the 12.45 today and here were my handicapping ratings
Fairok Lad (44)
Distiller (42)
Phone in (66)
Artic Shadow (30)

This race is very poor and will be a no bet race for me. If the going was good to firm then phone in would win this race easily however thats not the case today. A watching brief.

Night session

I recouped losses today and made a few buyins. i had to log out after a while as the software was really playing up tonight. i might give it a go later again. Including rakeback and bonuses i am now well over the 400 euro profit mark, so pretty pleased with that. However i only receive rakeback once a month and bonus payments every wednesday. I have another 130 euro to clear in that and i should have over 120 euros in rakeback to receive as well on the 6th of next month, maybe more.

Poker observations

I just played a 3 hour session of 20NL on betfair and ended down around 30 euro. I played reasonably well but got coolered twice.

Betfair differs from other poker apps as its very loose and passive, definitely more than pokerstars and full tilt at these levels. Therefore a tight aggressive game is profitable. However im playing a laggy style in position to also take advantage of the regulars and try and dominate the tables with aggression. I can only play 4 tables as the software is a load of shite and is so unresponsive to play that you alway time out with more than 4. So todays session i ran bad but i will put in another session later to recoup losses. sooner I reach 600 euro the sooner i can try out 50nl and increase profits.

Horse racing went well today with a 2 point profit. Of course would have been 3 if i waited a bit longer to get 11/2 on nemeton. I was a bit dissapointed with the first race but the lay didnt cost too much. Buck the legend is progressive and the one thing that really surprised me was the way he handled the track. Still a profit is a profit. i will be using the same bank as my poker bank for these bets , so i will be employing a 100 point bank. therefore todays bets were 5 euro each, so a whopping profit of 12 euros was made today!

Good night

I had a good poker night last night where initially i started off bad making two really bad mistakes, i held firm and won back 85 euro. my balance now is 516 euro.

so today i have time to look at the horses properly and i haev a few bets to place today.

I concentrated on 3 races so far, the handicap hurdle in ascot, the two handicap chases in exeter.

in the ascot race , Chantaco is a good lay but the odd are too high for me. if he was under 4/1 i would lay.

Exeter 2.50
Buck the legend (48)
A definite lay for me, going and distance not really proven, trainer record at course not good and horse is not suited to course. the race also has two other horse which i think are better than this on todays conditions.
Oracle Des Mottes (94)
A definite back for me. people are turning there nose up at thius due to weight it is carrying, but this horse seems capable of carrying heavy weights. its got pluses in all the other boxes. the last race was a bit fortunate but i still think he is way ahead of the rest here in this field.

Pistol Desbois (54)
Overclear (32)

3.25
Pauillac (73)
A lay for me as its a competitive race and question marks over weight and current trainer form
Nemetan (80)
This is a back for me and at 5.4 is good value.
Captain Marlon (71)
Brave Villa (71)
Eluvaparty (80)
Ive also backed this as the value is too good to turn down at 11/1. question mark over going but trainer likes to produce winnners here over fences.

some poker and 1 race analysed

I played 762 hands today and made 45 dollars so betfair balance is now 460 euro. i ran at 14BB/100 hands and played 24/19/3. i also only played 4 tables at a time so i could concentrate and not make any mistakes. i made two normal type scare card bluffs which did not work but no bad plays were made and i pounded the button and tried to isolate fish. i just did not get any great cards to play with. i got KK once and no AA. SO im happy enough with that and i think i will stick to 4 tables from now on. it seems to lag a bit of i play more.

I got a call from the betfair people today seeing if i was getting familiar with all it had to offer. i told them that the playability is pretty crap for multitablers but i don't know how much they take this comments into consideration.

As for horse racing, i only looked at one race so far. This race looks abysmal to call. the top 5 in the market all have major negatives and i will list below. again it looks like i will not be betting on this race as nothing stands out. if i got over 10/1 on markington then i may back that one.
3.10 Market Rasen (in order of market odds, fav first)
At The Money (46)
Distance & weight, and track are major fault.
Dan Buoy (43)
possibly going too soft, Trainer record bad there, seems to prefer left handed tracks, and may not be fully recovered from previous run 5 days ago.
Brave Rebellion (44)
Fitness worries and weight and not proven at class
Court Ruler (40)
going concerns, class and weight issues
Markington (68)
if the ground can dry any bit then this is the horse to back. Trainer form is an issue to but other than that has all the positive patterns to win if the going gets better

so as you can see there are more major negatives then positives for all these horses so therefore no bet for me.

No plays today

i havent had time to do anything today and i still feel tired so not in the best form to play poker. i did however receive a sign up bonus payment of 32 euros from betfair, so balance is now 435. Also rakeback stands at 75 dollars.

well after reviewing the race today i did well not to place any bets as i couldnt make a definite decision between the top two in the market and my handicap ratings showed it was pretty close.

Tomorrow i hope to get in 4 races, 2 handicap hurdle races in Wincanton and Market Rasen.

preoccuppied

Well i have had health issues in out family so i have put gambling aside for yesterday and most of today. Im knackered tired so no poker tonight but i did go through one horse race for tomorrow, the
2.20 handicap hurlde in Hexham.
I just had time to go through the first 4 in the market. i handicapped them with the follwoing ratings
Campanero 71
Twelve Paces 81
Scarvaugh Diamond 64
Fair Question 80.

Im ruling out Fair Question as he is not suited to the course and the other three mentioned horses as just as well suited to going and distance as he is but he does eed a flatter track.

Im worried about the top two as Campanero is a progressive horse but im nearly sure he can not handle top weight in a 3 mile mudfest.

So my pick for this race is twelve paces. However as the odds will be pretty small for this i will not back but only watch. Im not going to lay campanero either as a score of 71 is still pretty good.

Thats it for tonight im afraid. Hopefully i can get in some poker tomorrow

bad day today

Well i played around 2000 hands of poker today and im down to bankroll of 393 euro. i went over my mistakes and i could have saved 65 dollars but for stupid mistakes. I only had one cooler with KK V AA allin preflop but i could have got away from it as he limp reraised big and i put him all in and he snap called with AA.

Anyways hopefully i can sort out my bonus problem as im due over 80 dollars now and i should have 55 dollars coming back to me in rake back. I played a lot more laggy style today and tried to get involved against the bad loose players when i had position. It was working ok bar my errors. i need to stop playing 6 tables and just concentrate on 4 if i am to play this 24/19 style.

I also believe i may not be running well! (but i think everyone says that when things dont go their way!)

I really dont have much time for horse racing tomorrow as its now 3.41 am and i have to go to cork tomorrow morning but the one race which i glanced over was the 3.50 Leicster but i didnt fancy anything definite so no bet. If Pterodactyl had a recent race then i would have backed him but he doesnt seem to do too well after a long break. I have reservations about the favourite as he seems suited to a tighter course so looks like an outsider may well win.

Blog expanation and first post

Hi all,

This is my new blog which is all about poker and horse racing, hence the title. I am currently unemployed and plan to make some extra income from my two main hobbies that being 6max no limit hold em poker on the betfair poker site and UK and Ireland horse racing.

As I currently have shag all money i deposited €200 on betfair last Monday and it now currently stands at €420. I have over 11000 hands played at 20NL. Once i reach €600 i will take a shot at 50NL which i know i can beat but for comforts sake i need a decent bankroll and even with €600 i am still a bit short.

I will use this blog to post my observations of the limits i play and how i need to play to defeat my opponents and to note my mistakes, of which many i have made in the past week. I have gone back over results and have blown at least 200 dollars in bad mistakes. Poker is all about playing your A game and my negative results stemmed from trying to force myself to play poker when i wasn't in the right frame of mind to do so.

Now for the horses part of the blog I intend to analyse one race a day and use my own ratings system to see if i can pick out a winner or lay a favourite or both. This is just to get back into the horse racing scene as i have not placed a bet since last march. I was travelling the world for the past 18 months so i kept away from horse racing during that time bar the Cheltenham festival last march.

I also hope to be able to produce a video of me going through my process of selecting a race, and showing what to look for before you make a selection. I am a marginal winner in both poker and horse racing but that still makes me better than 95% of the other gamblers out there and hopefully with this blog i will keep track of my results and document my mistakes and learn from them.

And if some one actually does come across this blog, then please leave a comment.

cheers

JPR