Fridays shortlists
Chester 4.50
Sand Repeal
Summer Lodge
Mister Fizzbomb
Barbirolli
Theres 4 here whom i like and i have backed Sand Repeal as my main bet with covering bets on the rest. Im getting 2/1 for my money if Sand repeal comes in. Not sure how profitable these dutching type bets are but they have served me well so far the past few weeks.
Sandown 2.40
Solemn
Step it Up
Chandika
It has to be one of these three. I have negatives about the rest bar gentle guru but im only worried really if money starts to come in for this tomorrow as its won 4/6 when 5/1 or under. currently at 10/1 so watch out for any movement. this is only a small bet for me as i can only get 10/11 on my money by placing my money on the top two with a saver on the unexposed rival chandika.
York 4.40
Mudawin e/w
This a funish type bet for me as it is a pretty competitive handicap and a 16 runner race but this horse tickes all the right boxes conditions wise and plus the trainer is in good form over the past month. Horse is in great form and looks to be improving with a great jockey on board who has won 4 times on him and he has had the perfect amount of time off the course to have him in his best stead. at 11/1 his worth an each way shot. Of the other classier horses in the race Judegthemoment, Gee Dee Nen and Inchnadamph look to have a chance too with the later two pretty suspicious looking but i have ruled out due to recent trainer form. Connections for Judgethemoment are good. Detorri is 2/2 on this horse, it has all the conditions to suit, only negative is it is up 4 pounds higher than its last winning mark and has not won going left handed so far which im not sure is much of a hinderance on a galloping flat track?..hmmm tough race to crack really.
Anyway it looks like a good days racing tomorrow so enjoy..
By the way poker wise i am finally playing 100nl with a nice cushion of a bankroll.
60m min session tonight +€199
I am going to try and update this blog again daily to keep tabs of my bets
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
day 14 update
ok, i had to take a break last night as i went on tilt the previous day by making a balls of a 4 bet preflop pot with 89s against a good reg i always battle with.. i then tilted another buyin.
im up 323 dollars which is crap really..im running at +7 bb/100 hands. i have made mistakes worth at least 400 dollars and i have had bad beats which have cost me 500 which im not bothered about.
anyways i have the game sussed at this level as long as i dont make many mistakes but i have been making some pretty decent plays and good folds as well.
im up 323 dollars which is crap really..im running at +7 bb/100 hands. i have made mistakes worth at least 400 dollars and i have had bad beats which have cost me 500 which im not bothered about.
anyways i have the game sussed at this level as long as i dont make many mistakes but i have been making some pretty decent plays and good folds as well.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
April 2nd - Day 2
55mins - minus $40.
No major mistakes, i value towned myself with AA however i think i played it ok.
No major mistakes, i value towned myself with AA however i think i played it ok.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
April 1st - Day 1
60 minute session 50NL
+$128.29 dollars
Big mistake was not reading a note i had on player who likes to donk lead 1/3 pot into my raised pots. he folds to my reraises usually but this time he didnt and i called two more shitty smallish donk bets with my overpair. he has trips. Other than that, i probably made about 30 dollars of loose play misatkes, like calling with dominated hands like A10 and calling a few times out of position.
+$128.29 dollars
Big mistake was not reading a note i had on player who likes to donk lead 1/3 pot into my raised pots. he folds to my reraises usually but this time he didnt and i called two more shitty smallish donk bets with my overpair. he has trips. Other than that, i probably made about 30 dollars of loose play misatkes, like calling with dominated hands like A10 and calling a few times out of position.
April Goal
Ok, I am doing an April Challenge.
Firstly I will not be drinking alcohol for this month, otherwise it will screw up my goal.
I will play a 40 min session of 50nl everyday this month and make 1500 dollars.
I will update blog everyday with results
I am also looking at the horses everyday and will post if I find anything.
Firstly I will not be drinking alcohol for this month, otherwise it will screw up my goal.
I will play a 40 min session of 50nl everyday this month and make 1500 dollars.
I will update blog everyday with results
I am also looking at the horses everyday and will post if I find anything.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Cheltenham Day 4 Selections
Today has been my hardest to fine any definite stand out opportunities but heres what i have come up with
Cheltenham 1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1
I have narrowed it down to three
WALKON
EBADIYAN
ZAYNOR
As this is a novice juvenile hurlde, we need a horse who has proven stamina over a stiff race track. Walkon has won here before and has followed in the same footsteps as Katchit and Frankoek, the two previous alan king winners of this race. therefore at 9/2 he is my choice for this race. I will aslo be having a small bet on Ebadiyan as he has proven his stamina by winning at Naas which is very simiar to Cheltenham. I fear for Zaynors jumping ability however he ahs beaten Walkon htis year and he may have improved more than i believe it has so its hard to rule him out.
I believe Walkon will win, but i shall be dutching with the other two mentioned above to lock in a profit.
Cheltenham 2:05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3
another tough handicap which im not one bit confident about. My shortlist is as follows
SUNNYHILLBOY
DAVE'S DREAM
AACHEN
I will probably only bet 1/2 point win on Sunnyhillboy. He looks really progressive and has everything in his favour bar the longer than wanted lay off of 97 days since last run. however it is jonjo o neill who is in cracking form and mccoys on board.
The negative re: daves dream is the bounce factor. he ran 6 days ago, and is only running here due to the big bonus he gets if he wins this race as well. Also he has never won on stiff track and sire has 1/79 strike rate for winning on track.
I cant find much wrong with Aachen bar his jump up in class, however its his first handicap so could be leniently treated.
I wouldnt blame anyone if they didn thave a bet in this race.
Cheltenham 2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle Race) Grade 1
I shall be taking a chance on PRIDE OF DULCOTE. It has yet to be involved in a tough race and he has actually fallen or unseated rider twice in his career, but i reallty think if ruby can stay on then the class will show in this horse. If he hadnt fallen last time in cheltenham, when he was poised to win, i would be piling a lot on this one, but as this is not the case i will only be putting 1 point to win. I think 7/2 is very skinny here.
Cheltenham 3:20 - totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1
Im struggling to find the winner here. Im going to take a chance on a non paul nichol horse. Im opposing Denman, due not fully fit after heart op, and kauto star as no horse has ever regained the gold cup before. He aslo looks a tiny bit vulnerable around here.
So i think either Exotic Dancer or Barber Shop will win and i will back both to win to small stakes
1/2 point win on both 7/1, 10/1
Cheltenham 4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
A lottery of a race here. for interest i will be backing OFAREL D'AIRY. Proven on going, distance, course, is fit, can carry weight, has good recent form. Age fits past winning profiles of this race. Im playing for small stakes here.
1/2 point each way, 20/1
Cheltenham 4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
This is it! this is my banker of the day and its 24/1. After my close call yesterday, im going to back this one each way. Even though David pipe has entered 8 runners out of 24 into this race so he can win it for his father, i am going for a PJ Hobbs horse.
This looks like it has been plotted up to win this race. He has been raced twice over fences lately to keep him race fit and not to affect its handicap mark over hurdles.(2nd and 1st in both) Horse name is OSCATELLO. Honestly im not as confident as i was for ping pong sivola yesterday but that is just down to two factors jockey and field sizes - has only placed 1/4 in fields over 16 runners. However read this. 2 of those was when he ran over 25f and the other one was when he came back after a long seasonal break - he needs a first run, and he cannot make 25f trip as 21f is his optimum. the He placed 4th in the coral cup last year in cheltenham so he has the class to win this. The jockey has at least won here before so thats a positive in this amateur jockey race.
Verdict 2 points E/W (24/1 Betfair)
Cheltenham 5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3
OH CRICK ey
Yes my final selection of the festival. Great weight, novices chasers have a good record in this race and 80% of winners were under 10/1. He will be suited by track and and looks preped for this race. Next best is lorient express.
1/2 point each way
Cheltenham 1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1
I have narrowed it down to three
WALKON
EBADIYAN
ZAYNOR
As this is a novice juvenile hurlde, we need a horse who has proven stamina over a stiff race track. Walkon has won here before and has followed in the same footsteps as Katchit and Frankoek, the two previous alan king winners of this race. therefore at 9/2 he is my choice for this race. I will aslo be having a small bet on Ebadiyan as he has proven his stamina by winning at Naas which is very simiar to Cheltenham. I fear for Zaynors jumping ability however he ahs beaten Walkon htis year and he may have improved more than i believe it has so its hard to rule him out.
I believe Walkon will win, but i shall be dutching with the other two mentioned above to lock in a profit.
Cheltenham 2:05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3
another tough handicap which im not one bit confident about. My shortlist is as follows
SUNNYHILLBOY
DAVE'S DREAM
AACHEN
I will probably only bet 1/2 point win on Sunnyhillboy. He looks really progressive and has everything in his favour bar the longer than wanted lay off of 97 days since last run. however it is jonjo o neill who is in cracking form and mccoys on board.
The negative re: daves dream is the bounce factor. he ran 6 days ago, and is only running here due to the big bonus he gets if he wins this race as well. Also he has never won on stiff track and sire has 1/79 strike rate for winning on track.
I cant find much wrong with Aachen bar his jump up in class, however its his first handicap so could be leniently treated.
I wouldnt blame anyone if they didn thave a bet in this race.
Cheltenham 2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle Race) Grade 1
I shall be taking a chance on PRIDE OF DULCOTE. It has yet to be involved in a tough race and he has actually fallen or unseated rider twice in his career, but i reallty think if ruby can stay on then the class will show in this horse. If he hadnt fallen last time in cheltenham, when he was poised to win, i would be piling a lot on this one, but as this is not the case i will only be putting 1 point to win. I think 7/2 is very skinny here.
Cheltenham 3:20 - totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1
Im struggling to find the winner here. Im going to take a chance on a non paul nichol horse. Im opposing Denman, due not fully fit after heart op, and kauto star as no horse has ever regained the gold cup before. He aslo looks a tiny bit vulnerable around here.
So i think either Exotic Dancer or Barber Shop will win and i will back both to win to small stakes
1/2 point win on both 7/1, 10/1
Cheltenham 4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
A lottery of a race here. for interest i will be backing OFAREL D'AIRY. Proven on going, distance, course, is fit, can carry weight, has good recent form. Age fits past winning profiles of this race. Im playing for small stakes here.
1/2 point each way, 20/1
Cheltenham 4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
This is it! this is my banker of the day and its 24/1. After my close call yesterday, im going to back this one each way. Even though David pipe has entered 8 runners out of 24 into this race so he can win it for his father, i am going for a PJ Hobbs horse.
This looks like it has been plotted up to win this race. He has been raced twice over fences lately to keep him race fit and not to affect its handicap mark over hurdles.(2nd and 1st in both) Horse name is OSCATELLO. Honestly im not as confident as i was for ping pong sivola yesterday but that is just down to two factors jockey and field sizes - has only placed 1/4 in fields over 16 runners. However read this. 2 of those was when he ran over 25f and the other one was when he came back after a long seasonal break - he needs a first run, and he cannot make 25f trip as 21f is his optimum. the He placed 4th in the coral cup last year in cheltenham so he has the class to win this. The jockey has at least won here before so thats a positive in this amateur jockey race.
Verdict 2 points E/W (24/1 Betfair)
Cheltenham 5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3
OH CRICK ey
Yes my final selection of the festival. Great weight, novices chasers have a good record in this race and 80% of winners were under 10/1. He will be suited by track and and looks preped for this race. Next best is lorient express.
1/2 point each way
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Cheltenham Day 3 Selections
I dont have time to write detailed explanations tonight, but here are my tips for tomorrow. Im not overly confident about any one in particular, but they all have conditions in their favour so expecting a good run from all and hopefully most of them will be in contention.
Cheltenham 1:30 - Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Toughest race to pick a winner on the card today. I have shortlisted
KIA KAHA (8/1)
NAIAD DU MISSELOT (wearing blinkers first time- horse may be tempermental)
NORTHERN ALLIANCE (Distance worry)
Im going for the top one as theres less negatives about it. Only going to bet 1/2 point win as its too hard a race to call
Cheltenham 2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)
another extremely tough race to call. If this was any other meet, id avoid this race but just for interests sake i have picked SYNCHRONISED. 1/2 point Each Way (12/1)
Cheltenham 2:40 - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase)
Grade 1
Hard to see VOY POR USTEDES getting beat but stranger things have happened. Our Vic or Tidal Bay cannot be ruled out, so i am just going to watch this. At evens there is no value for me.
Cheltenham 3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1
This could be the best race of the day. It is definitely between these three
KASBAH BLISS (2.2)
PUNCHESTOWNS (4.6)
BIG BUCK'S (7.8)
All the talk is Kasbah bliss will take some beaten. However he still hasnt won on a stiff track, even though every one says he should have won last year but the jockey produced him too early, however 0/5 on stiff tracks is a worry.
Nicky Henderson is very bullish about Punchestown, saying that he has improved since conceding weight in defeat to Big Bucks so expect a very good run from him back on this track.
I will be backing all three in a dutch bet which basically gives me a free bet on Big Buck to win as i secretly think he will come very close. I have set up the bet that i will get 6/4 if he wins but lose nothing on the race if Kasbah bliss or Punchestown win. Complicated but i think its a no lose situation.
Cheltenham 4:00 - Freddie Williams Festival Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3
another impossible race to try and pick a winner from. Heres my shortlist
PING PONG SIVOLA 2 point win
NOTABLE D'ESTRUVAL
CLARIFIED
the bottom 2 are Irish trainer and look like they have been plotted up for an attack on this race, however Im siding with Venetia Williams mount PING PONG SIVOLA, as it has bottom weight, very good recent form, is progressive, C&D winner and she has a fantastic strike rate in Handicap chases here. Also rallied by the fact that this horse hammered Tricky Trickerster (who won the first race here yesterday)allbeit in the muck here last January. Sire stats show horse can handle good going so this actually is beginning to look like my best bet of the day. At 14/1 its good value
Cheltenham 4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
I havent a clue whats going to win this so im going for an experienced horse who loves the going, the track, trainer in great form, trainer jockey combination good, well weighted, fit and in decent recent form and 33/1 to boot!!
LE DUC 1/2 point each way (33/1)
Cheltenham 1:30 - Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Toughest race to pick a winner on the card today. I have shortlisted
KIA KAHA (8/1)
NAIAD DU MISSELOT (wearing blinkers first time- horse may be tempermental)
NORTHERN ALLIANCE (Distance worry)
Im going for the top one as theres less negatives about it. Only going to bet 1/2 point win as its too hard a race to call
Cheltenham 2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)
another extremely tough race to call. If this was any other meet, id avoid this race but just for interests sake i have picked SYNCHRONISED. 1/2 point Each Way (12/1)
Cheltenham 2:40 - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase)
Grade 1
Hard to see VOY POR USTEDES getting beat but stranger things have happened. Our Vic or Tidal Bay cannot be ruled out, so i am just going to watch this. At evens there is no value for me.
Cheltenham 3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1
This could be the best race of the day. It is definitely between these three
KASBAH BLISS (2.2)
PUNCHESTOWNS (4.6)
BIG BUCK'S (7.8)
All the talk is Kasbah bliss will take some beaten. However he still hasnt won on a stiff track, even though every one says he should have won last year but the jockey produced him too early, however 0/5 on stiff tracks is a worry.
Nicky Henderson is very bullish about Punchestown, saying that he has improved since conceding weight in defeat to Big Bucks so expect a very good run from him back on this track.
I will be backing all three in a dutch bet which basically gives me a free bet on Big Buck to win as i secretly think he will come very close. I have set up the bet that i will get 6/4 if he wins but lose nothing on the race if Kasbah bliss or Punchestown win. Complicated but i think its a no lose situation.
Cheltenham 4:00 - Freddie Williams Festival Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3
another impossible race to try and pick a winner from. Heres my shortlist
PING PONG SIVOLA 2 point win
NOTABLE D'ESTRUVAL
CLARIFIED
the bottom 2 are Irish trainer and look like they have been plotted up for an attack on this race, however Im siding with Venetia Williams mount PING PONG SIVOLA, as it has bottom weight, very good recent form, is progressive, C&D winner and she has a fantastic strike rate in Handicap chases here. Also rallied by the fact that this horse hammered Tricky Trickerster (who won the first race here yesterday)allbeit in the muck here last January. Sire stats show horse can handle good going so this actually is beginning to look like my best bet of the day. At 14/1 its good value
Cheltenham 4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
I havent a clue whats going to win this so im going for an experienced horse who loves the going, the track, trainer in great form, trainer jockey combination good, well weighted, fit and in decent recent form and 33/1 to boot!!
LE DUC 1/2 point each way (33/1)
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