crash and burn

ever since my last post i have been having disasterous results. I hate losing money and after losing a record 21 points in one days racing i started tilting seriously in poker and racing.. my bankroll is now under 800 euro.. fucking shite.. my last three sessions of poker i have lost 200 dollars to fucking donkeys but its all my own fault as i knew i was beat and still made stupid calls.. anyways im back down to 20nl until i regain my composure and im putting extra analysis into my racing. i had 8 bets today on a busy day and 1 won so i lost 3 points.

Saturdays action

Here are my selections for saturdays jump racing.

Ascot
12.30 My Petra - should win easy
1.05 Trabolgan, Gangadu & Monkerhostin ( large prices here to dutch)
1.40 No bet for me as cant chose one and looking forward to just watching it.
2.10 Blazing Bailey, Lough Derg, Duc de Regneire ( large prices here to dutch)
2.45 Aigle D'or, Prince Taime if less than 8/1 sp, Numide Belcantista if less than 8/1 sp)

Haydock
12.20 Ocky de Neulliac & Ballysimon for an outside big priced winner
12.50 Secret Tune
1.25 Miss Pross
2.00 Doctor David
2.35 Nevertika, Middleton Dene
3.10 to be decided yet depending on going.

Newcastle
No bet for first two races are they are shite and im too tired to go throughthe rest of the card tonight, hopefully tomorrow

had 4 bets today in two races ,one second place by short head, and the other race just didnt go to plan at all. so down 48 euro.

Bankroll now at 1152. No poker played today as break was needed.

Cheers

Stagnation....

Two steps forward two steps back...

I played 450 hands last night of good poker and won $75, about 52 euros. i then played in two races today, the mares novice hurdle in Exeter, where i backed the second fav Silver spinner who i thougth would walk this event. However it came 3rd at 11/4.

The second race i got beat by the gamble. I actually backed three horses in this race at level stakes but in fact i should only have bet two, South of the bordr and willam bonney. They came 2nd and 4th respectively. I didnt take into account Sunita whch was coming back after a year off the course and the trainer Lavelle had it trained to win.. south of the border looked like he wa crusing it and would have won only for Sunita being the better horse on the day.
so i lost 48 euros today at racing.

I missed an opportunity in the 2.40 in ludlow where the favourite priince of persia went off at odds on even though i had questions marks over its fitness due to close proximity to last weeks win, and also pipes record with handicap chases at ludlow which was 0/8, however i refrained from the race as the going went from soft to good to soft where prince of persia had preformed well. The reason i still should have layed it was the fact i found 4 others in the race who had a great chance of winning, these being
College Ace, Crewell Willow, Downs Folly and Presenting express (another lavelle trained horse coming back after a year..)

the result was Creswell willow 14/1 1st, Downs folly 8/1 2nd, College ace 17/2 4th and Prince of Persia 8/11 3rd... oh well..

So bankroll is 1202 euros... This week has been crap. down 130 euros in fact.. However the show will go on and i still hope to reach 2000 before the new year

A Blank

So of the tips i posted it turned out to be a breakeven day. I however put on another bet in the last handicap chase in Bangor and i picked 3 horses, 2 of which came 2nd and 3rd at biggish prices.. i should have paid more heed to tony mccoy saddling the favourite whose strike rate while on said horse in handicap hurdles was 1-1-2 (thats 1 win, 1 place from two runs ). anyways he won by two lenghts at 3/1..

More to come tomorrow

Newbury 2.00

This looks like an easy one to predict!!!

Jackella to win and lay Great Tsar if price drops below 4/1

I have lost no money today due to laying off my last selection at 8/1 so giving me a free bet at 5/1. however it came second so no harm done.

Edit: just spotted a possibilty in Major euro and i am going to put on a weird bet. I am going to back to win and also lay to place. The reason: the horse has all the conditions to win today but this horse has a weird temperment and if he isnt on his A game doesnt win then he will either be pulled up or well down the pecking order. A safe bet i think. his odds are 13.5/1 and 3/1 to lay

12.20 Newbury

i usually wouldnt back in a race like this with a lot of unknowns but i think i have found value in Walkon. Currently 14/1 on betfair and up against two highly rated media hyped hurdle debutants, Zaynar & Hebridean who have proven class form on the flat and who are now with good stables. However you can never rely a horse first time out over fences so im takin the value bet here as Walkon won its first race in a class two novice hurlde, tainred by Alan King who is in fine form and ha won on agalloping track before in good fashion.

I would like to see a bit more market support for this as King has never had a winner in a non handicap hurdle over 8/1 so we shall see how it goes...However i am hoping that the media has over hyped the first two in the market

what a shit day

I played a lot of poker today and i played very well and made no mistakes so it really pisses me off to say i lost 110 euros today down to 3 bad beats and 1 cooler.. i also had other smaller coolers which im not even counting against shortstackers. anyways so i can vent
I had 2 full houses and got the money all in on the turn to see the board double pairing on both occassions, losing 120 dollar pots each time.. the opponents of course had trips but then of course made bigger full houses..

i then got it all in with KK versus QQ and of couse he drew out on me for 100 dollar pot.

The cooler was my set of 8's versus a set of 10's for 110 dollar pot..

that 225 dollars down so about 180 euros so i suppose i did ok considering...

anyways vent over.. bankroll now at 1092 euros.

lost 12 euros on the horses today.. my banker bet came second but i layed the fav as well in that race and he came third so a free bet.. howevr i backed two horse in the handicap chase in doncaster and they came nowhere, but only 6 euros each on both so not too bad...

I should not have had a bet in the second race as no clear horse stood out for me, whereas for the candy girl race, that horse really did stand out and was pretty unlucky not to catch the winner on the run in..

right time for bet. hopefully ive earned at least 30 dollars rakeback today for my play..

2.45 Doncaster

I cant separate these two so back both
Leading attraction 2/1
Ice Tea 9/1

1.55pm Fairyhouse

Candy Girl to win, currently at 3/1.

Result Result, winner alright!

Huntingdon 12:10 - Result
Toteplacepot E.b.f. Mares' 'nh' Novices' Hurdle (qualifier)


1st Circus Rose 13/2
2nd Tot Of The Knar evens
3rd Wistow 50/1
4th Call Me A Legend 5/2
5th Bahia Blanca (FR) 16/1
6th Midsummer Magic 25/1

As you can see from the result the analysis of the race was nearly spot on. I got on the winner at 10/1 last night. I layed the fav and also backed Midsummer Magic so all in all 100 euro's profit.

I also put in a half hour session on betfair and won 60 euro so bankroll now at 1332 or something like that. I also got word from raketherake.com and they informed me that i did indeed receive the rakeback.. i checked it out and i received it the day i played over 3500 hands and didnt realise it but no worries....Im still pretty happy with the progress of the bankroll at the moment.

12.10 huntington 11 dec

Sorry my third post today but i just had a quick look over the first race in huntington tomorrow and i may have spotted a big priced winner. of course this may turn out to be egg on my face but hear me out

The favouite Tot Of The Knar won 2 days ago easily and is priced at 6/5. he is trained by good trainer and ridden by top jockey and trainer is in decient form. however i have spotted that he runs his best races on left handed tracks and tomorrow is right handed plus to run two days after a hurdle race is still pretty tough going.

Next in the market is Call Me A Legend, again good trainer and jockey but this horse cannot race on an easy track. he needs a stiff test so ruled out

Next is Circus Rose which looks kinda dangerous. its a very progressive horse and is suited to track but this is an extra 3 1/2 furlongs and has never raced this distance. I have noted that her relatives have been very successful at 3 miles and furtehr so maybe this horse does have a chance.. one for the short list currently trading at 11/1. just noted that this trainer has won this race before with this horses relative and they took the saem path with this horse. expect a very big race out of her tomorrow

Bahia Blanca & Midsummer Magic are both nicky hendersons horse and he has also won this race before and that winner had the exact same profile as these two. so these two and circus rose are on my short list. I may discount Bahia Blanca as she tended to hang left on last outing and plus her two places came on better ground also it looks like the second stable jockey is on board .

Therefore that leaves Circus rose & Midsummer magic to dutch at big odds tomorrow and to lay the favourite Tot Of The Knar.

Cardrunners has fucked up Full Tilt

Yes i know that most of us ssnl grinders owe our life to cardrunners but fuck me when they joined up with full tilt they really did make it damn unenjoyable to build a bankroll there.. i know table selction is the key but you are now lucky to find one fish at any of the 25nl tables and a load of 22/17 regualrs and the nits as well.. 6 months ago i could run up 8 buyins on a good day.. now im lucky to make two, and my play has considerably improved since then.

SO i have decided to give up playing no limit holdem on full tilt and instead concentrate on 25plo. Reasons being.
1. I want to learn the game
2. I still want to receive rakeback
3. I still want to earn points so i get reduced price/free membership to cardrunners
4. I actually like their software
5. I want to play on another site when betfair has low traffic.

So I have read that PLO book by some chinese sounding name guy before but now im going to read it again and watch a few videos and this time take notes. I have 32 buyins to play with so watch me tear it up 25plo!!

Finally, I played another A game session on Betfair and won just over 100 euros today. Bankroll now stands at 1152 euro. Sweet.

I might not get in any horse racing tomorrow as i have to run relation into hospital for xray..

missed opportunity today

I got up late today and realised that there was only 1 national hunt race meet on in leicster which is one of my favourite uk tracks. anyways i analysed the handicap chase race where the favourite was 8/13!! here are my notes on the selection

Ping Pong Sivola
1.sam thomas on board -shaky at the moment over fences-
2.never won carrying 11-11
3.has suffered bounce factor before however they race previous was alot tougher than this past one
4.never won at distance

with all these negatives you would have thought i should have layed it.. howevr i looked at all the other horses and there was nothing special about them. the eventual winner was Phar Again where i note 'going issue but has race into a place in exeter(very similar track to leicster).

anyway what i am trying to get at is the fact that i should have layed this horse anyways as he was definitely correct to be favourite but in my eyes possibly a 5/2 favourite, therefore value in my eyes and a profit in the long run..

Last night i played 25nl on fulltilt on 8 tables.. never again.. i tilted for the first time in a while.. i made 2 stupid mistakes and lost 3 buyins in a couple of minutes. i eventually got back 2 but took ages on 6 tables.. it is unbelievable how much tougher full tilt is to any other poker site at comparable stake levels. Im off to play some more.

Also i have sent email to rake the rake about my rakeback from betfair which i have still not received. i did however receive some more of my sign up bonus. Betfair balance is now 1033 euro.

New schedule

Sorry for lack of posting but i have been away from my computer all weekend. looks like the unemployed bum will no longer be unemployed come 12th jan. New job got so between now and then i have come up with a new schedule to cover both horses and poker.

I have noticed that during the morning and early afternoon, betfair only has a few 50nl tables going populated by nitty regulars.. to prove this point i grinded 3000 hands yesterday playing 4 tables and made a total of 9 dollars.. maybe i didnt play so well but i didnt spew any big sums and i couldnt hit a barn door with an elephant either. I suppose i earned some rakeback.

today I analysed 3 races and had 3 successful bets out of 4 to the profit of 60 euro, (6 points profit). I am now betting 10 euro a bet as bank was 820 or so. after that I played for about an hour and a quarter on betfair poker and made 110 dollars but stopped as i felt myself losing concentration. I am now going to grind 8 tables of 25nl on full tilt for 3 reasons. 1. i have the aid of Poker ace hud. 2 . i am in debit on my ozzie credit card account and i want to transfer money from full tilt on to this account as it costs too much to do an international bank transfer.3. i can get free cardrunners membership if i build up 4500 points.

Anyway the new schedule is as follows
1. get up at noonish
2. look at days races and pick out a few selections and watch a bit of ATR racing channel
3. play some full tilt 25nl if i feel the need to play poker
4. have break for dinner
5. Play 50nl on betfair poker from 7pm on and for as long as i feel im playing my A game
6. If its early and i have had another break i will play some more 25nl on full tilt if i dont feel up to playing 50nl.

I also have plans to record a video showing how to analyse a horse race and become profitable from horse racing.

thats about it. laters

bad day

Again i proved my point of not playing when hungover. i was up 90 dollars yesterday but made 137 dollars worth of mistakes. i then played another session and lost all that again to breakeven for the day. sickening.

I got another 30 euros worth of bonuses today and im due the 120 dollars of rakeback on the 6th of dec.

I have stopped horseracing betting until the racing post sorts itself out. it is playing up really bad at the moment.. I also need to buy myself a subscription to ukhr racing as it has all the form there and now is easier to read then the racing post

Weekend Off

Im suffering from gambling withdrawal. i took the weekend off or an extended weekend off to celebrate my friends wedding so waiting to get over the hangover before i start playing again. i have a bad record of playing with a hangover.

Also i have noticed that racing post have updated their website and it looks like i shall have to pay now for their stats. pretty annoyed with that so i m looking around for other sources. the new rp site seems to have some glitches and i actually cant stand the look of it now...

also i put a bet on last friday as i got a tip from the fathers friend. i looked at the tip and thought yes this may well do well but it came nowhere. so i lost 20 euro on that..

ok time to grind some poker..