Fridays 21 Aug selections

Fridays shortlists
Chester 4.50
Sand Repeal
Summer Lodge
Mister Fizzbomb
Barbirolli

Theres 4 here whom i like and i have backed Sand Repeal as my main bet with covering bets on the rest. Im getting 2/1 for my money if Sand repeal comes in. Not sure how profitable these dutching type bets are but they have served me well so far the past few weeks.

Sandown 2.40
Solemn
Step it Up
Chandika

It has to be one of these three. I have negatives about the rest bar gentle guru but im only worried really if money starts to come in for this tomorrow as its won 4/6 when 5/1 or under. currently at 10/1 so watch out for any movement. this is only a small bet for me as i can only get 10/11 on my money by placing my money on the top two with a saver on the unexposed rival chandika.

York 4.40
Mudawin e/w

This a funish type bet for me as it is a pretty competitive handicap and a 16 runner race but this horse tickes all the right boxes conditions wise and plus the trainer is in good form over the past month. Horse is in great form and looks to be improving with a great jockey on board who has won 4 times on him and he has had the perfect amount of time off the course to have him in his best stead. at 11/1 his worth an each way shot. Of the other classier horses in the race Judegthemoment, Gee Dee Nen and Inchnadamph look to have a chance too with the later two pretty suspicious looking but i have ruled out due to recent trainer form. Connections for Judgethemoment are good. Detorri is 2/2 on this horse, it has all the conditions to suit, only negative is it is up 4 pounds higher than its last winning mark and has not won going left handed so far which im not sure is much of a hinderance on a galloping flat track?..hmmm tough race to crack really.

Anyway it looks like a good days racing tomorrow so enjoy..

By the way poker wise i am finally playing 100nl with a nice cushion of a bankroll.
60m min session tonight +€199

I am going to try and update this blog again daily to keep tabs of my bets

day 14 update

ok, i had to take a break last night as i went on tilt the previous day by making a balls of a 4 bet preflop pot with 89s against a good reg i always battle with.. i then tilted another buyin.

im up 323 dollars which is crap really..im running at +7 bb/100 hands. i have made mistakes worth at least 400 dollars and i have had bad beats which have cost me 500 which im not bothered about.

anyways i have the game sussed at this level as long as i dont make many mistakes but i have been making some pretty decent plays and good folds as well.

April 2nd - Day 2

55mins - minus $40.

No major mistakes, i value towned myself with AA however i think i played it ok.

April 1st - Day 1

60 minute session 50NL
+$128.29 dollars

Big mistake was not reading a note i had on player who likes to donk lead 1/3 pot into my raised pots. he folds to my reraises usually but this time he didnt and i called two more shitty smallish donk bets with my overpair. he has trips. Other than that, i probably made about 30 dollars of loose play misatkes, like calling with dominated hands like A10 and calling a few times out of position.

April Goal

Ok, I am doing an April Challenge.
Firstly I will not be drinking alcohol for this month, otherwise it will screw up my goal.
I will play a 40 min session of 50nl everyday this month and make 1500 dollars.
I will update blog everyday with results
I am also looking at the horses everyday and will post if I find anything.

Cheltenham Day 4 Selections

Today has been my hardest to fine any definite stand out opportunities but heres what i have come up with

Cheltenham 1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1

I have narrowed it down to three

WALKON
EBADIYAN
ZAYNOR

As this is a novice juvenile hurlde, we need a horse who has proven stamina over a stiff race track. Walkon has won here before and has followed in the same footsteps as Katchit and Frankoek, the two previous alan king winners of this race. therefore at 9/2 he is my choice for this race. I will aslo be having a small bet on Ebadiyan as he has proven his stamina by winning at Naas which is very simiar to Cheltenham. I fear for Zaynors jumping ability however he ahs beaten Walkon htis year and he may have improved more than i believe it has so its hard to rule him out.

I believe Walkon will win, but i shall be dutching with the other two mentioned above to lock in a profit.

Cheltenham 2:05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

another tough handicap which im not one bit confident about. My shortlist is as follows
SUNNYHILLBOY
DAVE'S DREAM
AACHEN

I will probably only bet 1/2 point win on Sunnyhillboy. He looks really progressive and has everything in his favour bar the longer than wanted lay off of 97 days since last run. however it is jonjo o neill who is in cracking form and mccoys on board.

The negative re: daves dream is the bounce factor. he ran 6 days ago, and is only running here due to the big bonus he gets if he wins this race as well. Also he has never won on stiff track and sire has 1/79 strike rate for winning on track.

I cant find much wrong with Aachen bar his jump up in class, however its his first handicap so could be leniently treated.

I wouldnt blame anyone if they didn thave a bet in this race.

Cheltenham 2:40 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices' Hurdle Race) Grade 1

I shall be taking a chance on PRIDE OF DULCOTE. It has yet to be involved in a tough race and he has actually fallen or unseated rider twice in his career, but i reallty think if ruby can stay on then the class will show in this horse. If he hadnt fallen last time in cheltenham, when he was poised to win, i would be piling a lot on this one, but as this is not the case i will only be putting 1 point to win. I think 7/2 is very skinny here.

Cheltenham 3:20 - totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1

Im struggling to find the winner here. Im going to take a chance on a non paul nichol horse. Im opposing Denman, due not fully fit after heart op, and kauto star as no horse has ever regained the gold cup before. He aslo looks a tiny bit vulnerable around here.

So i think either Exotic Dancer or Barber Shop will win and i will back both to win to small stakes
1/2 point win on both 7/1, 10/1

Cheltenham 4:00 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

A lottery of a race here. for interest i will be backing OFAREL D'AIRY. Proven on going, distance, course, is fit, can carry weight, has good recent form. Age fits past winning profiles of this race. Im playing for small stakes here.

1/2 point each way, 20/1

Cheltenham 4:40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

This is it! this is my banker of the day and its 24/1. After my close call yesterday, im going to back this one each way. Even though David pipe has entered 8 runners out of 24 into this race so he can win it for his father, i am going for a PJ Hobbs horse.

This looks like it has been plotted up to win this race. He has been raced twice over fences lately to keep him race fit and not to affect its handicap mark over hurdles.(2nd and 1st in both) Horse name is OSCATELLO. Honestly im not as confident as i was for ping pong sivola yesterday but that is just down to two factors jockey and field sizes - has only placed 1/4 in fields over 16 runners. However read this. 2 of those was when he ran over 25f and the other one was when he came back after a long seasonal break - he needs a first run, and he cannot make 25f trip as 21f is his optimum. the He placed 4th in the coral cup last year in cheltenham so he has the class to win this. The jockey has at least won here before so thats a positive in this amateur jockey race.

Verdict 2 points E/W (24/1 Betfair)

Cheltenham 5:15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3

OH CRICK ey

Yes my final selection of the festival. Great weight, novices chasers have a good record in this race and 80% of winners were under 10/1. He will be suited by track and and looks preped for this race. Next best is lorient express.

1/2 point each way

Cheltenham Day 3 Selections

I dont have time to write detailed explanations tonight, but here are my tips for tomorrow. Im not overly confident about any one in particular, but they all have conditions in their favour so expecting a good run from all and hopefully most of them will be in contention.

Cheltenham 1:30 - Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Toughest race to pick a winner on the card today. I have shortlisted
KIA KAHA (8/1)
NAIAD DU MISSELOT (wearing blinkers first time- horse may be tempermental)
NORTHERN ALLIANCE (Distance worry)

Im going for the top one as theres less negatives about it. Only going to bet 1/2 point win as its too hard a race to call

Cheltenham 2:05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)
another extremely tough race to call. If this was any other meet, id avoid this race but just for interests sake i have picked SYNCHRONISED. 1/2 point Each Way (12/1)


Cheltenham 2:40 - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase)
Grade 1

Hard to see VOY POR USTEDES getting beat but stranger things have happened. Our Vic or Tidal Bay cannot be ruled out, so i am just going to watch this. At evens there is no value for me.


Cheltenham 3:20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1

This could be the best race of the day. It is definitely between these three
KASBAH BLISS (2.2)
PUNCHESTOWNS (4.6)
BIG BUCK'S (7.8)

All the talk is Kasbah bliss will take some beaten. However he still hasnt won on a stiff track, even though every one says he should have won last year but the jockey produced him too early, however 0/5 on stiff tracks is a worry.
Nicky Henderson is very bullish about Punchestown, saying that he has improved since conceding weight in defeat to Big Bucks so expect a very good run from him back on this track.
I will be backing all three in a dutch bet which basically gives me a free bet on Big Buck to win as i secretly think he will come very close. I have set up the bet that i will get 6/4 if he wins but lose nothing on the race if Kasbah bliss or Punchestown win. Complicated but i think its a no lose situation.


Cheltenham 4:00 - Freddie Williams Festival Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3

another impossible race to try and pick a winner from. Heres my shortlist
PING PONG SIVOLA 2 point win
NOTABLE D'ESTRUVAL
CLARIFIED

the bottom 2 are Irish trainer and look like they have been plotted up for an attack on this race, however Im siding with Venetia Williams mount PING PONG SIVOLA, as it has bottom weight, very good recent form, is progressive, C&D winner and she has a fantastic strike rate in Handicap chases here. Also rallied by the fact that this horse hammered Tricky Trickerster (who won the first race here yesterday)allbeit in the muck here last January. Sire stats show horse can handle good going so this actually is beginning to look like my best bet of the day. At 14/1 its good value

Cheltenham 4:40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

I havent a clue whats going to win this so im going for an experienced horse who loves the going, the track, trainer in great form, trainer jockey combination good, well weighted, fit and in decent recent form and 33/1 to boot!!

LE DUC 1/2 point each way (33/1)

Cheltenham Day 2 selections

Cheltenham 1:30 - 139th Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

Im opposing Cant buy time and Konati Kid. the former prefers small fields and fav hasnt won in 17 years. The latter prefers shorter run ins and possibly a right handed track. Therefore i reckon winner number 5 for the irish in this first race. Parson Pistol seems to have every chance here and at 14/1 is great value. He's a classy horse, has alrady wona graded race, can win in big fields, and according to the trainer his best bet of the festical which is good cionsidering he had a winner already yesterday.Nina is riding it and is one of the more experienced riders here at cheltenham. This is my NAP of the day

Verdict
Parsons Pistol 2 point Win (14/1)


Cheltenham 2:05 - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle Race) Grade 1

I really dont know what to back here. I was going to oppose the favourite ruby is riding due to his sires stats on the going and i was going to back diamond harry but the historic trend states that previous winner of the Challow hurdle have never won this race, but at the same time i can find a fault with all the runners in this race. Becasue of this I am only going to back these two horses to small stakes to win just to keep me interested

Verdict
MIKAEL D'HAGUENET 1/2 point win (3/1)
DIAMOND HARRY 1/2 point win (9/2)


Cheltenham 2:40 - RSA Chase Grade 1

Im not that confident about this one either but i think its between ruby and tony mccoys mounts on the day, Cooldine and Gone for Lunch. Massini maguire will not win as the trip is beyond him. a lot of the other entries dont fit the age profile or dont seem classy enough, so with all those things factored in it just leaves Cooldine as the last horse standing so to speak, so looks like another winner for the Irish

Verdict

Cooldine 1 point win (4/1)

Cheltenham 3:20 - Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1

Master minded will win this but i spent a good hour trying to pick out a really good priced horse that will come in second (or first if master minded falls) and i have gone for a horse which fits the winning profile, likes the going and distance and has won on a stiff track before, plus tony mccoys on board.

Verdict
1 point each way BRIAREUS (28/1)

Cheltenham 4:00 - Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3

this race is very competitive. Nicky henderson has laid out a horse to win this but odds are fairly short. However i will still be backing as is probably still value if you get it over 6/1. I will also be having a small punt on one of my favourite horses Lough Derg as he loves the course but is top weight so will be a minor miracle if he wins, but he should place as he never gives up and has all the conditions to suit and doesnt rally mond carry the extra weight.

Verdict
THE POLOMOCHE 1 point win (8/1)
LOUGH DERG 1/2 point each way (28/1)

Cheltenham 4:40 - Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

I havent a clue whats going to win this but better to stick to a david pipe horse here and back it each way. He has two runners here but only one fits the winning profile of the past 4 years of having won over 12f on the flat, french bred, and three runs only. He didnt win last time out though so only negative. I shall be playing to very small stakes just to keep me interested

RONALDO DES MOTTES 1/2 point each way


Cheltenham 5:15 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1

Im not a big fan of bumber races but i will have a small punt on paul nolans horse. he races prominently which will keep him out of trouble, has won over course and distance before and he fits the winning profile of previous winners. He's good vale at 14/1

Verdict
SHINROCK PADDY 1 point each way (14/1)

Cheltenham Day 1 selections

So Today is the day we ve been waiting months for. I have poured over the form books all evening and have come up with the following. I have all my bets on so at least i cant go changing my mind tomorrow!

Cheltenham 1:30 - williamhill.com Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

Cousin Vinnys price is lenghtening as i type due to willie mullins statement today that horse did not travel well to cheltenham and wasnt eating properly this morning. therefore time to look else where in the market. Im backing to small stakes each way Alan Kings horse Medermit. He can handle a stiff finish, seems to be progressive and can handle good to soft and soft if the weather deteriorates.

I am also backing Golans Lad each way to very small stakes as it offers great value at 50/1 win, 10/1 place on the exchanges. he is one of two horses to have won on this course, is improving, and has won a grade two race here late last year. 50/1 is too good a value price to turn down espically if theres a chance that cousin vinney is not 100%.

Verdict
Medermit 1/2 point Each Way (14/1 - 7/2, Betfair)
Golans Lad 1/2 point Each Way (50/1 - 10/1, Betfair)


Cheltenham 2:05 - Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1

I spent hours on this race and still not sure about it.
Obviously (imo) its between
I'msingingtheblues
Calgary Bay
Tatenen

I rate them in that order and have decided this on the following
Tatenen is a 5 year old but does not receive the weight allowance which is a big negative. No Value at 4/1
I really like Calgary Bay but i think he is better suited to 2m4f and this may be run too fast for him. Class wise there is not much difference between Himself and Imsingingtheblues but the latter is improving with every run, loves a battle, and seems too good value to turn down. Only concern was his preference for winning on flatter tracks, therefore im only putting a smallish bet on this race also. He is however a smallish sized intelligent horse who is able to avoid trouble in a big field of inexpereinced jumpers

Verdict
1 point win Imsingingtheblues (11.5 betfair)

Cheltenham 2:40 - William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3

I hate to follow the crowd here but i think Wichita Lineman is so well treated here for this handicap that he should land the spoils. Even at 6/1 i think he is value. He can handle big fields, going, distance, track etc and has everything in his favour. this is a close as i'll get to a NAP for me today. Unless Jonjo o Neill and JP macmanus have concocted this to allow their other runner Reveillez to win at 50/1, i cant see Wichita Lineman not winning this race.

If you want and outsider bet, then refer back to Reveillez or Hot Weld (50/1 and 70/1 respectively on Betfair)

Verdict
3 point win Wichita Lineman

Cheltenham 3:20 - Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1

Keeping it simple here. No value with Binocular, so take a chance that Katchit has returned to form after his break. 4 from 5 at cheltenham, he simply loves it around there.

Verdict
Katchit 1 point Each Way (14/1 - 7/2, Betfair)

Cheltenham 4:00 - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase Cross Country Chase

Its between L'ami and Garde Champetre, with my prefernece for the latter as he gets the distance just marginally better than L'ami and is a course and distance specialist.

Verdict
Garde Champetre 1 point Win (4/1 Betfair)

Cheltenham 4:40 - David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Grade 2

I think United will win this easy but god knows so only going to play small stakes here. She loves the distance and all types of going and is realy progressive this season. Hard to see her beat

Verdict
United 1 point win (4/1 Betfair)

March Madness

I had one bet today. KEmpsi who ran in the handicap hurdle in the 3.20 in Ayr. It won at 5/1. It has been a long losing run for me.. so bad i too a break from horse racing for a week or so. I have been just concentrating on my poker.

Pokerwise i havent played too much and have broke even over the last two weeks. Im missing some rake back payments from betfair so im trying to get that sorted out.

Just for anyone who does actually read this, here are the sourses of my horse racing selections.

www.racingpost.co.uk
www.attheraces.com

Ratings
www.ukracestats.com - free and brilliant, but do need to be double checked with the RPost.
www.ukhorseracing.co.uk - 50 Stg p/month. I have used these ratings for years and i like to reference these to see if they concur with my selections. There top 6 rated are profitable to value prices they produce.

I was going to try and trade a few horse races today but got caught up with other stuff. the software i was going to use was Bet Angel Basic which is free and allows you to green up once you have placed the trade..

Anyways next week i will be posting my cheltenham selections which i will garner from the above resources. I have ahd 3 hugely successful years in a row so please fck let it continue!!

Good Returns today

Today i stuck to my new schedule. I played an hour session from 8-9pm. Then i picked out some horses for tomorrow from 9-30 to 10-30, then i played a 40min session from 11 - 11.40 as i felt in a good mood.

I won 140 dollars altogether which was nice. Bankroll now stands at 1143 euros.

I have now had 15 winning sessions in a row.. short and sweet eh! Im running at 13 BB/100 over 3.5k hands for Feb. too good to be true, but to be honest the players arent too great at betfair.

I have moved all my racing bets to another betfair account and have started with minimum bets until i get my confidence back. These are all my bets for tomorrow

GB / Taun 17th Feb / 02:20 2m3f Hcap Chs	Magot De Grugy	Back	7235095087	17-Feb-09 09:34		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 02:20 2m3f Hcap Chs	Anchor Bridge	Back	7235095088	17-Feb-09 09:34		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 01:50 2m1f Nov Hrd	Ronaldo Des Mottes	Back	7235094172	17-Feb-09 09:34		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 01:50 2m1f Nov Hrd	Nictory Vote	Back	7235094173	17-Feb-09 09:34		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 02:50 2m1f Hcap Hrd	R De Rien Sivola	Back	7235084843	17-Feb-09 09:31		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 02:50 2m1f Hcap Hrd	Ski Sunday	Back	7235084844	17-Feb-09 09:31		4.00
	GB / Taun 17th Feb / 01:20 2m Beg Chs	Stumped	Back	7235084049	17-Feb-09 09:31		8.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 03:30 3m Mdn Hrd	The Hollinwell	Back	7235082953	17-Feb-09 09:30		4.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 03:30 3m Mdn Hrd	Minella Theatre	Back	7235082954	17-Feb-09 09:30		4.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 03:00 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Another Brother	Back	7235082293	17-Feb-09 09:30		4.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 03:00 2m4f Hcap Hrd	Backbord	Back	7235082294	17-Feb-09 09:30		4.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 02:30 2m4f Nov Hrd	Valleyofthedolls	Back	7235080755	17-Feb-09 09:30		8.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 02:00 3m Nov Chs	Shining Gale	Back	7235080122	17-Feb-09 09:29		8.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 01:30 2m Hcap Chs	Laharna	Back	7235078801	17-Feb-09 09:29		4.00
	GB / Sthl 17th Feb / 01:30 2m Hcap Chs	Grand Manner	Back	7235078802	17-Feb-09 09:29		4.00

New schedule

I have decided to try out a new routine.I want to try and get to bed for a reasonable hour each night this week instead of playing poker last thing and then taking hours to get my mind to sleep afterwards. I have only been playing short sessions lately of between 40 - 90 minutes. So from tomorrow on i will play my poker session from 8 until 9/9.30. I will then start mickey mousing around on the internet and forget about backtesting stupid horse racing systems like i ahve been doinf for the past month or two. It wastes loads of time and money.There is no holy grail of horseracing systems. You have to pick the horses by reading form. Therefore I am starting a new bank and im going back to what i used to do quite well and analyse all the national hunt races but this time analyse the first 6 priced horses in the tissue market. I always used this method when going to an actual race meet and it has never let me down.
Im only going to back if i can narrow it down to two selections or less per race otherwise i will avoid. I am starting a new bank in my dormant betfair account so i dont mess up my main poker account.

Im not picking any selections tonight as it is too late..

laters

Im back

Well, i fairly ruined my bank when i went on a 30 point downswing with my horse selections. i went down to 675 euros so i decided that was enough of that. if i had stuck to poker alone i would be well over 2 grand by now.

in the last 5 days i have moved back up to 50nl after playing enough hands of 20nl and crushing it for nearly 11BB/100 hands to move from 675 up to 800 euro. After 5 sessions there of about 7 hours of play my bank now stands at 1034. Im playing pretty well. i suppose buying holdem manager didnt do any harm. Im really getting the hang of it now.

Im still lookin at horseracing and may start up a new bank in an other betfair account i have lying dormant as i dont want to mix up the poker with horse racing from now on.

Laters

Discipline

Today i placed two bets on the all weather one of which i should never have placed. I am only a novice when it comes to the AW and i have tumbled across a system which works quite well, however today i broke the rules of the system and backed a horse who had all the right criteria but had never won at the course before in kempton. i reasoned that as only 2 other horses out of the 11 had won there before and they were outsiders then this horse had a great chance.. anyways result was 2nd at a skinny 5/2 beaten by one of those outsiders with a course win.

the second bet was again charles stuart who had every thing in his favour but failed to get home and finished 2nd as well.

I had 2 bankers for sedgefield or so i felt but AGAIN race meeting called off.. sickened as i spent 2 hours on 3 sedgefield races last night.

Lesson learned today, stick to my methods and rules on the AW.
I allow myself leeway on the national hunt races as i have way more profitable experience even though by reading this blog you would hardly think so..

I would be nicely in profit if i did not go and back 23 horses that one sat with a hastily made new backing method without any testing.. i must actually go over all my bets since i started this to see how much i am down or up.

EDIT: just checked and i am down 109 euro on horse racing. pretty brutal stuff but i think i have turned the corner. i have found a decent AW back and lay system and a NH back and lay method which i have only be using since 26thn of dec. looking at results since then i am up 108 euro which is 10 points. The lack of NH racing has been dissappointing to say the least

Poker update

I have gone back to 20nl to rebuild my confidence. here are my stats for 1438 hands over 3 sessions.

23/19/3.8
+18.14 BB/100
+$104.37

I have played near perfect poker and have shut down the tables when i feel my mind starts to wonder/lose momentum.

On the racing front, i had 3 losers over the past two days so down 30 euros. Im not too worried. However what is annoying is spending a few hours analysing races and finding the meetings called off due to bad weather the following day. I suppose theres nothing i can do about that.

new years update

I still havent played a game of poker since last post but i have put a few bets on. my bankroll is back over 1k.. its 1079 euros. this does include about 110 from rakeback. I had a 20/1 winner on the 26th and also a 7/1 winner. i did have a few losers as well, but i think i needed that win to boost my confidence. i havent been betting every day as i was out meeting friends, ring in the new year etc.

anyway, im going to play about an hour of poker later and see how i do..