Cheltenham Day 1 selections

So Today is the day we ve been waiting months for. I have poured over the form books all evening and have come up with the following. I have all my bets on so at least i cant go changing my mind tomorrow!

Cheltenham 1:30 - williamhill.com Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

Cousin Vinnys price is lenghtening as i type due to willie mullins statement today that horse did not travel well to cheltenham and wasnt eating properly this morning. therefore time to look else where in the market. Im backing to small stakes each way Alan Kings horse Medermit. He can handle a stiff finish, seems to be progressive and can handle good to soft and soft if the weather deteriorates.

I am also backing Golans Lad each way to very small stakes as it offers great value at 50/1 win, 10/1 place on the exchanges. he is one of two horses to have won on this course, is improving, and has won a grade two race here late last year. 50/1 is too good a value price to turn down espically if theres a chance that cousin vinney is not 100%.

Verdict
Medermit 1/2 point Each Way (14/1 - 7/2, Betfair)
Golans Lad 1/2 point Each Way (50/1 - 10/1, Betfair)


Cheltenham 2:05 - Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1

I spent hours on this race and still not sure about it.
Obviously (imo) its between
I'msingingtheblues
Calgary Bay
Tatenen

I rate them in that order and have decided this on the following
Tatenen is a 5 year old but does not receive the weight allowance which is a big negative. No Value at 4/1
I really like Calgary Bay but i think he is better suited to 2m4f and this may be run too fast for him. Class wise there is not much difference between Himself and Imsingingtheblues but the latter is improving with every run, loves a battle, and seems too good value to turn down. Only concern was his preference for winning on flatter tracks, therefore im only putting a smallish bet on this race also. He is however a smallish sized intelligent horse who is able to avoid trouble in a big field of inexpereinced jumpers

Verdict
1 point win Imsingingtheblues (11.5 betfair)

Cheltenham 2:40 - William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3

I hate to follow the crowd here but i think Wichita Lineman is so well treated here for this handicap that he should land the spoils. Even at 6/1 i think he is value. He can handle big fields, going, distance, track etc and has everything in his favour. this is a close as i'll get to a NAP for me today. Unless Jonjo o Neill and JP macmanus have concocted this to allow their other runner Reveillez to win at 50/1, i cant see Wichita Lineman not winning this race.

If you want and outsider bet, then refer back to Reveillez or Hot Weld (50/1 and 70/1 respectively on Betfair)

Verdict
3 point win Wichita Lineman

Cheltenham 3:20 - Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1

Keeping it simple here. No value with Binocular, so take a chance that Katchit has returned to form after his break. 4 from 5 at cheltenham, he simply loves it around there.

Verdict
Katchit 1 point Each Way (14/1 - 7/2, Betfair)

Cheltenham 4:00 - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase Cross Country Chase

Its between L'ami and Garde Champetre, with my prefernece for the latter as he gets the distance just marginally better than L'ami and is a course and distance specialist.

Verdict
Garde Champetre 1 point Win (4/1 Betfair)

Cheltenham 4:40 - David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Grade 2

I think United will win this easy but god knows so only going to play small stakes here. She loves the distance and all types of going and is realy progressive this season. Hard to see her beat

Verdict
United 1 point win (4/1 Betfair)